Correlation between abnormal trends in the spontaneous fields of tectonic plates and strong seismicities          下载免费PDF全文

Da-Cheng Tan  Jian-Cun Xin 《地震科学（英文版）》2017,30(4):173-181

Tectonic activities, electrical structures, and electromagnetic environments are major factors that affect the stability of spontaneous fields. The method of correlating regional synchronization contrasts(CRSC) can determine the reliability of multi-site data trends or shortimpending anomalies. From 2008 to 2013, there were three strong earthquake cluster periods in the North–South seismic belt that lasted for 8–12 months. By applying the CRSC method to analyze the spontaneous field E_(SP) at 25 sites of the region in the past 6 years, it was discovered that for each strong earthquake cluster period, the E_(SP) strength of credible anomalous trends was present at minimum 30%of the stations. In the southern section of the Tan-Lu fault zone, the E_(SP) at four main geoelectric field stations showed significant anomalous trends after June 2015, which could be associated with the major earthquakes of the East China Sea waters(MS7.2) in November 2015 and Japan's Kyushu island(MS7.3) in April 2016.  相似文献   

The role of baseflow in dissolved solids delivery to streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin          下载免费PDF全文

Christine A. Rumsey  Matthew P. Miller  Gregory E. Schwarz  Robert M. Hirsch  David D. Susong 《水文研究》2017,31(26):4705-4718

Salinity has a major effect on water users in the Colorado River Basin, estimated to cause almost $300 million per year in economic damages. The Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program implements and manages projects to reduce salinity loads, investing millions of dollars per year in irrigation upgrades, canal projects, and other mitigation strategies. To inform and improve mitigation efforts, there is a need to better understand sources of salinity to streams and how salinity has changed over time. This study explores salinity in the baseflow fraction of streamflow, assessing whether groundwater is a significant contributor of dissolved solids to streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Chemical hydrograph separation was used to estimate baseflow discharge and baseflow dissolved solids loads at stream gages (n = 69) across the UCRB. On average, it is estimated that 89% of dissolved solids loads originate from the baseflow fraction of streamflow, indicating that subsurface transport processes play a dominant role in delivering dissolved solids to streams in the UCRB. A statistical trend analysis using weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season was used to evaluate changes in baseflow dissolved solids loads in streams (n = 27) from 1986 to 2011. Decreasing trends in baseflow dissolved solids loads were observed at 63% of streams. At the three most downstream sites, Green River at Green River, UT, Colorado River at Cisco, UT, and the San Juan River near Bluff, UT, baseflow dissolved solids loads decreased by a combined 823,000 metric tons (mT), which is approximately 69% of projected basin‐scale decreases in total dissolved solids loads as a result of salinity control efforts. Decreasing trends in baseflow dissolved solids loads suggest that salinity mitigation projects, landscape changes, and/or climate are reducing dissolved solids transported to streams through the subsurface. Notably, the pace and extent of decreases in baseflow dissolved solids loads declined during the most recent decade; average decreasing loads during the 2000s (28,200 mT) were only 54% of average decreasing loads in the 1990s (51,700 mT).  相似文献   

Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Willamette River Basin,Oregon, USA     

Il‐Won Jung  Heejun Chang 《水文研究》2011,25(2):258-277

We investigated trends in future seasonal runoff components in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon for the twenty‐first century. Statistically downscaled climate projections by Climate Impacts Group (CIG), eight different global climate model (GCM) simulations with two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, (A1B and B1), were used as inputs for the US Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modelling System. Ensemble mean results show negative trends in spring (March, April and May) and summer (June, July and August) runoff and positive trends in fall (September, October and November) and winter (December, January and February) runoff for 2000–2099. This is a result of temperature controls on the snowpack and declining summer and increasing winter precipitation. With temperature increases throughout the basin, snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline consistently for all seasons. The decreases in the centre of timing and 7‐day low flows and increases in the top 5% flow are caused by the earlier snowmelt in spring, decreases in summer runoff and increases in fall and winter runoff, respectively. Winter runoff changes are more pronounced in higher elevations than in low elevations in winter. Seasonal runoff trends are associated with the complex interactions of climatic and topographic variables. While SWE is the most important explanatory variable for spring and winter runoff trends, precipitation has the strongest influence on fall runoff. Spatial error regression models that incorporate spatial dependence better explain the variations of runoff trends than ordinary least‐squares (OLS) multiple regression models. Our results show that long‐term trends of water balance components in the WRB could be highly affected by anthropogenic climate change, but the direction and magnitude of such changes are highly dependent on the interactions between climate change and land surface hydrology. This suggests a need for spatially explicit adaptive water resource management within the WRB under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

大地电场台站日变幅年度变化趋势分析     

赵文舟  马钦忠  陈婧  李伟  周江南  杨彦明 《地震地磁观测与研究》2018,39(6):165-172

为了直观展示大地电场日变幅年度变化趋势，获取多年尺度下数据变化形态及特征，选取2012-2015年，4个地电台网8个存在潮汐地电场变化的地电台站观测数据，进行去除台阶、异常数据及滤波处理，计算地电场日变幅。结果显示：①2012-2013年大多数台站存在春冬低、夏秋高的日变幅趋势性特征；②2014-2015年存在几种不同日变幅年度变化趋势，同时同一台站不同测道间日变幅变化趋势存在差异性，该变化趋势和差异性的存在可能与地下介质结构变化和介质的非均匀性有一定关系。  相似文献   

南方亚热带季风区将乐县森林植被动态变化及其对气候变化的响应     

左冰洁  孙玉军 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(6):958-968

在全球气候变化背景下,植被动态变化以及植被对气候变化的响应方式已经成为生态学和地理学领域的热点。本文对比分析了南方亚热带季风区将乐县不同类型森林植被对不同时间尺度的干旱响应的差别。基于2000-2017年MODIS-EVI数据及气象站点数据,用最大值合成法、趋势分析法以及相关分析法,分析了森林植被及气象因子的动态变化特征,并对比不同森林植被对气候变化响应的差别。研究表明：① 2000-2017年,研究区植被覆盖度、EVI和降水均显著增加,区域内湿度增加,森林长势渐趋良好;② EVI在生长季初期和末期与同期的降水、温度均显著正相关（P<0.1）,初期森林受降水因子的影响更大,末期受温度因子的影响大;③ 1-3月和周年的气候变化对森林的生长至关重要,长时间尺度的湿度增加对森林生长具有显著的促进作用,SPEI的时间尺度越长与EVI的相关性也越大;④ 针阔混交林与同期温度、降水的相关系数最高,并且与不同时间尺度的SPEI相关性均比较高,属于气候敏感型林型,在生产经营中要谨慎预防气候变化对该林型带来的伤害;⑤ 森林覆盖度变化与降水和SPEI_24的相关性极显著,长时间尺度的降水变化是影响森林植被覆盖率变化的重要因素之一。  相似文献   

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya          下载免费PDF全文

Vincent Omondi Odongo  Christiaan van der Tol  Pieter R. van Oel  Frank M. Meins  Robert Becht  Japheth Onyando  Zhongbo Su 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3276-3293

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Madeline R. Magee  Chin H. Wu 《水文研究》2017,31(2):308-323

A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of ?10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality across Scandinavia—Evidence of a shifting hydrograph?          下载免费PDF全文

Bettina Matti  Helen E. Dahlke  Bastien Dieppois  Damian M. Lawler  Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4354-4370

Fluvial flood events have substantial impacts on humans, both socially and economically, as well as on ecosystems (e.g., hydroecology and pollutant transport). Concurrent with climate change, the seasonality of flooding in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt‐dominated to a rainfall‐dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, that is, flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply, and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large‐scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality and defining related key drivers therefore is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explores changes in flood seasonality across near‐natural catchments in Scandinavia using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt‐dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring and early summer (March through June), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows with 5–35% of the catchments showing significant changes at the 5% significance level. Seasonal mean daily flows corroborate those findings with higher percentages (5–60%) of the catchments showing statistically significant changes. Alterations in annual flood occurrence also point towards a shift in flow regime from snowmelt‐dominated to rainfall‐dominated with consistent changes towards earlier timing of the flood peak (significant for 25% of the catchments). Regionally consistent patterns suggest a first‐order climate control as well as a local second‐order catchment control, which causes inter‐seasonal variability in the streamflow response.  相似文献   

基于静态小波变换的趋势面构造     

蒋开明  顾民  葛良全  顾莉 《物探与化探》2011,35(6):848-850

在勘查数据处理异常分离方面,针对多项式最小二乘拟合构造的趋势面存在拟合度无法调整以及会出现失真情况的不足,提出了基于静态小波变换的趋势面构造方法。经过小波变换得到的近似系数表征信号的趋势,不同尺度的近似系数代表不同尺度下的趋势,静态小波变换后的近似系数和细节系数没有进行下采样,近似系数和细节系数仍然和原信号的长度相同。这种方法能根据需要构造出不同拟合度的趋势面且失真度很低。  相似文献